The drop in violence has been considerable and is a fantastic achievement by the U.S. but it’s worth reminding ourselves that this “victory” still means 600 civilian deaths a month. That’s roughly two 9/11s a month, when adjusting for population size – but more terrifying because more random. It reduces violence to the levels of 2005 – a period when almost every observer saw the war as a catastrophe. There has been no oil law, no provincial agreement, no deal on Kirkuk, and Baghdad is a myriad different Berlins in the Cold War. Anyone who can call this precarious situation “victory” rules himself out as a serious commentator. He’s a propagandist. And he does no service to the troops or the American people by lying to them for cheap and temporary partisan gain.
Andrew Sullivan, The Daily Dish, responding to Hugh Hewitt’s declaration of victory in Iraq. The bold highlights are my own.
“Mission Accomplished” redux, Mr. Hewitt?
12 responses so far ↓
1
sctobrien
// Dec 19, 2007 at 2:34 pm
Not to be the pessimist, but there are a lot of things happening and many flying under the radar.
For one, Newsweek is reporting those involved in the sectarian killings are hiding the bodies much better. For another one, some reports out of Iraq include troops going on fewer patrols (which is a good thing if it means fewer American casualties).
Additionally, al Sadr has called a cease to violence that expires in February.
Oh, and let’s not forget, barricades have been built and the people separated and many of those “needed” killing by their opponents have been killed.
Lastly, let’s not forget the millions of refugees that have fled Iraq.
But al Sadr is the huge wildcard.
2
Anon E. Mouse
// Dec 19, 2007 at 4:07 pm
There are so many holes in your arguments (Both KiD and Obrien) I don’t know where to start.
1. Anecdotal evidence from soldier I know IN Iraq say that patrols have increased.
2. TO suggest that there are LESS patrols after an INCREASE in troop levels is absurd.
3. Civilians are going to die in a myriad of different ways, even in the U.S.
“During 2005, 16,885 people in the U.S. died in alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes, representing 39% of all traffic-related deaths (NHTSA 2006).”
4. Refugees are starting to return (wish I could remember the magazine – it was Time or Newsweek had a big spread about it).
I would not call it “victory” but the surge has worked (and it is absolutely killing those in the anti-Bush camp). It is astounding how many people just cannot accept that fact.
3
sctobrien
// Dec 20, 2007 at 1:35 am
Mouse,
As usual folks like you ignore many aspect you don’t want to face and then try to make your points by throwing up the ignorant “anti-Bush” crap.
I will try to find one of the reports I read about fewer patrols. Now, I can’t recall, but this article may have been about the entire country and not just Baghdad. Yes, I would imagine since the bulk of troops went to Baghdad, it might be different.
Next, WHAT was the main goal of the surge supposed to be? And has that even happened? Let me give you the answer – “political reconciliation.” Remember?
Next, there has been a 3 month decline in casualties after what, four years? Don’t you think it is a little bit early to be declaring a “success”? Especially when if you take the time to read more you might find that many of the reasons impacting the lessening casualties are beyond that of the addition of more troops.
I mean, while you stand gloating from a partisan political stand point, what will you saying if things drastically change in February when al Sadr’s cease fire ends?
Lastly, did you see the news today? More mass graves found in Baghdad.
4
Knight in Dragonland
// Dec 20, 2007 at 7:09 am
I’m sorry, Anon … but your arguments are extremely weak.
To say that having a family member killed in a car accident – even if it was by a drunk driver – is equivalent to having them targeted for execution, dragged from their homes, tortured and then beheaded simply because they belonged to the wrong sect or tribe is both incorrect and inappropriate (to an utterly bewildering degree). You’re also quoting U.S. statistics when Iraq has a population 12-15 times smaller than our own.
The level of civilian deaths in Iraq is down to the level of 2005. Only in comparison to the wanton slaughter of 2006 and early 2007 is the current situation an improvement. Without a political settlement – which by all accounts is getting absolutely nowhere – Iraq remains a powderkeg that could blow up again at any time.
Yes, some refugees are returning home to Iraq. Many are returning because they’ve run out of money or because countries like Syria are cracking down on immigration and forcing many Iraqis back across the border. Besides, the numbers I’ve heard on returnees are at most 60,000 in the last 2-3 months. Compared to the 2 to 3 million Iraqis that have fled their country, that’s a piddling drop in the bucket … and doesn’t account for the fact that while some Iraqis may be returning, many others continue to flee.
5
Vonster
// Dec 20, 2007 at 9:21 am
Don’t bother, Mouse: NeoComs are intrinsically right.
6
Cory
// Dec 20, 2007 at 1:42 pm
Boy, it’s a good thing all these people are dying for a good reason…
7
Emtronics
// Dec 20, 2007 at 2:48 pm
I just talked to a guy who just came back from Iraq. he says it is the biggest clusterf*** he has ever seen. Words right out of the mouth of someone who has been there. besides. Faux news says we have won, the surge has worked, then they went on reporting about Oprah.
8
Vonster
// Dec 24, 2007 at 11:11 am
EM: Most soldiers in any war look at it as a CF.
9
Archie
// Jan 6, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Is the surge succeeding?
According to public opinion, the answer is YES:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/war_on_terror/war_on_terror_update
10
Archie
// Jan 6, 2008 at 9:37 pm
Is the surge working?
According to a the highest circulation U.K. newspaper, the surge is working and the man leading the effort – - General David Petraeus – - is their “Man of the Year” for 2007:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=W0XFI4AXQRQMFQFIQMGSFFWAVCBQWIV0?xml=/news/2007/12/30/nperson130.xml
Read it and weep, George McGovern! What a twit!!
11
Knight in Dragonland
// Jan 6, 2008 at 10:26 pm
43% of Americans said the surge is succeeding, according to that Rasmussen poll.
1) They’re polling the wrong population. They should be asking the Iraqis. It’s not our country.
2) It’s one poll, and (just in case you missed 3rd grade math) 43% is less than half. Wow … that’s a whopping success! If you got 43% correct on a test, was that a good score for you?
You also neglected to mention some other statistics from the same Rasmussen poll. Only 34% of those surveyed said they expected things to get better in Iraq, while 29% expected the situation to worsen. That’s a large majority that expect things to stay the same or get worse. 51% say that history will judge our adventure in Iraq a failure, and only 30% say it will be judged a success.
Unfortunately for you, Archie … I’m not a twit. I’m not so easily swayed by your attempted manipulation of the facts. Nice try, though.
I agree that General Petraeus has done a lot of good work. Maybe if he had been the commander from the beginning of the occupation, things would be much different.
However, unless we’re prepared to occupy Iraq in perpetuity (making our claims of wishing to establish an Iraqi democracy in the heart of the Middle East a complete farce), no solution is in sight. After decades of repression, the ruling Shi’a parties are showing no sign of wanting to concede anything to the Sunnis. In fact, they’re demanding that the local tribal militias in Anbar and elsewhere that have been so successful in reducing the Al Qaeda presence disarm and disband because they see them as a threat to their authority. The Kurds, our strongest allies in Iraq, are holing up and trying to secure Kirkuk and its oil fields within their boundaries. Meanwhile Turkey, another ally, is conducting cross-border raids against the Kurds, leaving us in a terrible catch-22.
The situation may have quieted over the last few months, but any in depth analysis shows that the situation in Iraq remains completely FUBAR. We’re despised across much of the globe because of our unilateral militarism and willingness to completely abandon our democratic principles (Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo, rendition to Third World hellholes, limitless wiretapping, destroyed CIA interrogation tapes). Meanwhile, we’re neglecting Afghanistan, the Taliban is resurgent and Bin Laden is still at large. Our armed forces are being stretched to the limit with soldiers going back for 3rd, 4th and 5th extended tours. Meanwhile, China and Russia flex their muscles and expand their influence and military capabilities while we’re bogged down in a bloody sandbox.
12
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